With Great Data Comes Great Fantasy Football Rankings
The Gavfather System swung through 22 years of NFL data and came back with 5 calls that will get me laughed at. Until they hit.
With Great Data Comes Great Fantasy Football Rankings
By GH | thegavfather.com
In every universe there's a Spider-Man.
In this one he builds fantasy football algorithms instead of fighting crime.
Same general vibe. Better work-life balance.
Here's the thing about Spider-Man that nobody talks about. He's often alone in what he knows. The public hates him. J. Jonah Jameson is on the front page calling him a menace. And he keeps doing the right thing anyway because the data — his instincts, his analysis, his spider-sense — tells him to.
That's this column.
The Gavfather System analyzed 22 years of NFL play-by-play data. 777,000 plays. 175 features. The public might not like what it found.
We're publishing it anyway.
Call 1: Justin Herbert is QB3.
Peter and MJ Were Always the Answer
Peter Parker spends years not seeing what's right in front of him. MJ is there the whole time. Patient. Waiting for him to figure it out.
Justin Herbert is MJ.
The market has him at QB6 or QB7 — looking everywhere else while the answer stands right there.
Mike McDaniel was an NFL head coach. He voluntarily stepped down to become the Chargers offensive coordinator because he wanted to work with Herbert that badly.
Herbert called the new scheme "an oasis in the desert."
The Gavfather System applies +9% based on McDaniel's historical tendencies. Motion heavy. Quick release. Everything Herbert needed. Nothing he's had. Until now.
The call: Herbert QB3. Round 4.
He was always the answer. The market just hasn't figured it out yet.
Call 2: Zay Flowers is a Top-10 Wide Receiver.
Harry Never Saw His Best Friend Standing There
Harry Osborn spent years blaming Spider-Man for everything while his best friend Peter was right next to him the whole time.
The fantasy football community is Harry.
Zay Flowers is right there.
New Ravens OC Declan Doyle ran the second highest play action rate in the NFL last year. He plans to significantly increase Lamar Jackson's passing volume in 2026. Flowers is the primary target in that offense.
The model applies +8% for the new scheme. His situation score jumped to 78.
The market has him as a mid-round WR3 that nobody's talking about.
The call: Flowers WR2 upside. Rounds 6-7.
Your best move has been standing next to you the whole time.
Call 3: Patrick Mahomes is QB9.
Even Spider-Man Bleeds
This is what makes Spider-Man different from every other superhero.
He's not invincible. He's a kid from Queens who hurts and bleeds and keeps going anyway. The emotional weight is real. The physical toll is real.
Mahomes tore his ACL AND his LCL in Week 15.
He's "hopeful" for Week 1. Hopeful is not confirmed. Hopeful is what you say when you genuinely don't know.
Even at full health: Bieniemy is back as OC running a ground-and-pound scheme. More carries. Fewer Mahomes attempts. Less opportunity.
The model applies -12% combined.
The market still has him top 3 QB because the market remembers who he was before he got hurt. The model only knows what the numbers say right now.
The call: Mahomes QB9.
Even the greatest ones bleed. Price accordingly.
Call 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown is WR1.
Spider-Noir Plays by Different Rules
In Spider-Noir's universe everything is darker, grittier, different. The same hero. Completely different world. Different rules for how things work.
The Gavfather System operates like Spider-Noir.
In your universe Chase is WR1. In most universes Chase is WR1. He has better career credentials. Nobody is arguing that.
But in this universe — where Detroit's situation score is 88 out of 100, where new OC Drew Petzing increases passing volume, where the Boom-Consistency Index doesn't lie —
The model has Amon-Ra at 20.63 projected PPG. Chase at 19.92.
The call: Amon-Ra WR1.
Different universe. Different rules. Same confidence.
Call 5: Stack Four Lions.
It Was Always Steve Rogers
Yes we know. Captain America is Avengers, not Spider-Man.
We don't care. It works better. Moving on.
Everyone thinks the Avengers run on Iron Man. The armor. The money. The swagger.
But watch the movies again. It's Captain America who leads. Quietly. Consistently. The one everyone underestimates until they can't anymore.
Detroit is Captain America.
Everyone's talking about Kansas City. San Francisco. Philadelphia. The big names. The flashy offenses.
Meanwhile Detroit just got a coordinator upgrade and quietly assembled the best fantasy offense in football.
Gibbs RB1. Amon-Ra WR1. LaPorta TE3. Goff QB5.
Four players. One roster.
Build around Detroit.
I could do this all day.
Full rankings at thegavfather.com. Updated daily through camp.
Five calls. One machine. Twenty-two years of data.
An offer your roster can't refuse.
— GH
The Gavfather System: Doing the right thing even when J. Jonah Jameson calls it a menace.