Should I Stay or Should I Go: The TE Question
George Costanza spent nine seasons overthinking every decision until it was too late. Every fantasy drafter does the same thing with tight end. The data finally has an answer.
Should I Stay or Should I Go: The TE Question
By GH | thegavfather.com
George Costanza's entire life is a series of decisions made too late, too early, or based entirely on the wrong information.
Every fantasy drafter does the same thing with tight end.
Do I take Kittle in round 3? Is that too early? Should I wait? What if someone else takes him? What if I wait and he is gone? What if I take him and he gets hurt? What if I do the opposite of what I normally do?
George tried that. It worked for exactly one episode.
The Gavfather System has spent 22 years analyzing tight end production. Here is what the data actually says.
The TE Problem
The gap between TE1 and TE13 is the largest positional gap in fantasy football.
In 2025 Trey McBride averaged 12.63 PPG. The 13th best TE averaged 7.07 PPG. That is a 5.56 point per game advantage � every single week � from having an elite TE.
Over 17 weeks that is 94 points. Nearly six full wins in a typical scoring system.
No other position has this gap. The difference between WR1 and WR13 is smaller. The difference between RB1 and RB13 is smaller. TE is unique.
This is why the decision matters so much. And why everyone overthinks it like George trying to decide whether to shake his boss's hand.
The 2026 TE Tiers
Tier 1 � Take them in rounds 3-4 (worth the reach):
Trey McBride, ARI � 12.63 projected PPG George Kittle, SF � 11.56 projected PPG Brock Bowers, LV � 11.97 projected PPG
These three are genuinely different from everyone else. If one is available in round 3-4 you take him. The weekly advantage is worth the early pick every time.
Note on Kittle: San Francisco plays Melbourne (Week 1) and Mexico City (Week 11). Two international games. Two weeks of historically suppressed scoring. Draft him knowing those weeks exist.
Note on Bowers: New Raiders OC Andrew Janocko has never been an OC at any level. Maximum uncertainty. The model applies a 7% discount for scheme uncertainty. His ceiling is elite. His floor has questions.
Tier 2 � Rounds 7-9 if tier 1 is gone:
Travis Kelce, KC � 9.86 projected PPG Dallas Goedert, PHI � 9.52 projected PPG Harold Fannin Jr., CLE � 9.53 projected PPG Tucker Kraft, GB � 9.96 projected PPG
These are legitimate TE1 options with weekly upside. Missing tier 1 is not a disaster if you land one of these.
Goedert note: Philadelphia plays London in Week 6. One suppressed week baked in.
Tier 3 � Round 10+ or stream:
Everyone else. The model projects them between 7-9 PPG with significant variance.
If you are in tier 3 at TE you are streaming and hoping. It works sometimes. It fails more than it works.
What George Would Do
George would wait too long on tier 1, panic in round 6 and reach for tier 3, and spend the rest of the season convinced he made the right call while finishing 7th.
Do not be George.
The data is clear: take an elite TE early or be disciplined enough to wait until the right tier 2 option is available. The middle ground � reaching in rounds 5-6 for a tier 2.5 option � is where drafts go wrong.
The Bottom Line
Should you take a TE early?
If McBride, Kittle, or Bowers are available in rounds 3-4: yes.
If they are gone: wait until rounds 7-9 for genuine tier 2 options.
Never reach for a TE you do not believe in just because you are nervous.
George made all his decisions out of anxiety. Make yours out of data.
Full rankings at thegavfather.com/rankings.
An offer your roster can't refuse.
� GH
The Gavfather System: No soup for the streaming TE drafter.